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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/21 11:13

   Corn and Soybeans Lower at Midday

   Corn and soybeans are lower and wheat is mixed with some rains in the corn 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the DOW futures down 65 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 25 lower. Energies 
are mixed with crude down 0.80. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $5.80.


   Corn trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with profit taking as rains fall 
across parts of Iowa as we head towards the weekend. Heat and mixed rain 
coverage remain in the near-term forecast with the more extended forecast 
hinting at improvement. Corn is in the middle of pollination this week, so some 
heat stress is the concern with trade looking towards the conditions on Monday 
to assess the effects of this week. Ethanol production margins are mixed 
overnight with the crude rally fading along with the cheaper corn. Midday 
forecasts should provide direction into the weekend, with more action late 
depending on forecasts. On the December chart support is the $3.97 10-day 
moving average, with the 20-day at $3.93 below that, resistance will be the 
weekly high at $4.06.


   Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents lower midday with trade backing away from the 
weekly highs on the rains in the central belt overnight. Meal is $1 to $2 lower 
and oil is 20 to 30 lower. Futures added weather premium this week due to the 
heat and concerns over the important soybean weather over the next 6 weeks. 
China is expected to remain active in secure fall supplies on break as we head 
into August as well. On the November chart support is at the 10-day at $10.16, 
which we are about a nickel above overnight, with the recent high at $10.47 
above the market.


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed in quiet trade at midday, with the winter 
wheats trying build on the positive finish from Thursday, as trade has gotten 
pretty heavily oversold along with spread unwinding, while spring wheat has 
turned 7 to 10 lower. Spread trade remains soft for the winter wheat, and 
spring wheat continues to slowly add carry. Most world export business remains 
focused on the Black Sea area as harvest begins to progress there, with the 
dollar making new lows again this morning. Australia continues to see dryness, 
raising concerns for production in the coming months, but near-term supplies 
remain ample. On the December KC contract support is the 50-day at $5.09 with 
the 20-day at $5.44 resistance.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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